The Trolley Dodger

Congratulations to the Los Angeles Lakers, 2007-08 Western Conference Champions!

One of my favorite sites, Shorpy (”The 100-Year-Old Photo Blog”), posted a photograph today entitled “Crowd at Ebbets Field. Oct. 5, 1920″. If I read the “Boston Garter” clock correctly, it’s a little past 10 AM.

In the first game of the 1920 World Series between the Indians and Dodgers, the final score was Cleveland 3, Brooklyn 1.

Here’s the Retrosheet page on that game. Unfortunately, the Indians took the Series 5 games to 2.

Be sure to check out the full size photo.

Today, Jon Weisman over at Dodger Thoughts posed an interesting way of looking at the upcoming season in “2008 Goal: The National League Pennant”.

Not that I don’t want the Dodgers to win the World Series. But the American League looks so much stronger than the National League that I’m not going to fret too much about the Dodgers beating the AL’s best. I’m willing to be Cinderella at that point.

The argument is to not blow up a core group of players that might well put us in contention every year through 2013 (including 2008), all for the sake of a long-shot 2008 push with “who knows?” after that. As Jon says,

The Dodgers do need to improve to win the NL, but they don’t need to improve radically.

Looking back over the last few years, it’s easy to pick out certain winning franchises that could be used as models, everything from the seemingly moribund Marlins to the Yankees juggernaut. Most recently, we see the Red Sox winning a couple of times after a really long wait.

What’s the right answer? The fact is there is no one way to win, no magic incantations to be chanted during the off-season to reveal the right moves to make.

For informational purposes, let’s look at the results of the 13 World Series after the 1994 strike.

YEAR    WINNER            LOSER
-----------------------------------------
1995    Braves (NL)       Indians (AL)
1996    Yankees (AL)      Braves (NL)
1997    Marlins (NL) †    Indians (AL)
1998    Yankees (AL)      Padres (NL)
1999    Yankees (AL)      Braves (NL)
2000    Yankees (AL)      Mets (NL) †
2001    Dbacks (NL)       Yankees (AL)
2002    Angels (AL) †     Giants (NL) †
2003    Marlins (NL) †    Yankees (AL)
2004    Red Sox (AL) †    Cardinals (NL)
2005    White Sox (AL)    Astros (NL) †
2006    Cardinals (NL)    Tigers (AL) †
2007    Red Sox (AL)      Rockies (NL) †

† = Wild Card

What we see is:

• NL won five times, AL won eight.
• Wild Card teams have collectively made nine appearances (out of 26 possible), winning four. However, eight of those nine have been since 2000.
• Outpacing everybody, the Yankees made six appearances, winning four…but none since 2000.

Broken down by divisions:

DIVISION        WINS/APPEARANCES
--------------------------------
AL East        6 of 8
NL East        3 of 6
NL West        1 of 4
AL Central     1 of 4
NL Central     1 of 3
AL West        1 of 1

No surprises there.

Now, the Dodgers are not the Yankees nor the Red Sox when it comes to budget. However, there seems to be a “21st Century World Series” emerging, to look at 2001-2007:

• On the AL side, the Red Sox have won two of two appearances, and the Yankees have lost both of their two.
• Also for the AL, they have won four of the seven series so far this century.
• For the NL, the Cardinals are the only team to appear more than once, and they won one of two.
• And the NL have won three of the seven.

In other words, nobody’s dominating — not a league, nor a single team, except maybe the Red Sox.

Again, there isn’t a right answer to get to the crapshoot that is the World Series.

Assuming the goal is to win the National League Pennant, however, is there anything to learn from the National League Championship Series winners?

YEAR    WINNER          LOSER
----------------------------------
1995    Braves          Reds
1996    Braves          Cardinals
1997    Marlins †       Braves
1998    Padres          Braves
1999    Braves          Mets †
2000    Mets †          Cardinals
2001    Diamondbacks    Braves
2002    Giants †        Cardinals
2003    Marlins †       Cubs
2004    Cardinals       Astros †
2005    Astros †        Cardinals
2006    Cardinals       Mets
2007    Rockies †       Diamondbacks

Of course, the first thing that jumps out of you is how dominant the Braves were for a long time. You also see they haven’t been back to the NLCS since 2001.

The 21st Century NLCS, 2001-2007:

• Somehow, the Cardinals are always hanging around.
• Wild Card teams have won four of those seven.
• Might 2007 be a portent of the next decade of NL West dominance?

If that last item is the case, and signs point to yes, then the goal “Win the National League Pennant” becomes “Win the NL West.” Beyond that, it’s a crapshoot.

And of course, we knew that already.

So, my conclusions:

• The Dodgers don’t have the budget of the Red Sox or Yankees, so can’t spend their money willy-nilly.
• To win the NL Pennant, the Dodgers have to strive to win the NL West.
• To be able to win the NL Pennant over the next decade, we cannot blow gaping holes in the lineup in order to maybe win in 2008. We can maybe win in 2008 without the gaping holes.
• Wait however many years it takes for the Fox TV deal to expire, then start raking in the cash like the Yankees and Red Sox do. ;)

Congratulations to the Colorado Rockies, winners of the 2007 National League Pennant!

Thank you!

Sincerely,
A Dodger Fan

P.S. Go Cubbies!