The Trolley Dodger

There’s a New York Times op-ed this morning from a couple of guys at Cornell who decided to figure out just how impossible Joe DiMaggio’s 56-game hitting streak was by running simulations of every at-bat of every year from 1871 to 2005. Oh, and they did it 10,000 times.

In essence, we programmed the computer to construct an enormous set of parallel baseball universes, all with the same players but subject to the vagaries of chance in each one.

They wanted to see how likely it was for any player to match that streak. The results? Surprising!

In each of these simulated histories, somebody holds the record for the longest hitting streak. We tabulated who that player was, when he did it, and how long his streak was.

And suddenly the unlikely becomes likely: we get a very long streak each time we run baseball history. [...] The streaks ranged from 39 games at the shortest, to a freakish baseball universe where the record was a remarkable (and remarkably rare) 109 games.

Check out the entire article at “A Journey to Baseball’s Alternate Universe”, by Samuel Arbesman and Steven Strogatz.

(via Slashdot)

Dodger Stadium, sometime in the 2008 season. Barry Zito on the mound. Rafael Furcal is on first base. Andruw Jones at the plate. The tension mounts. Everybody knows what’s about to happen. It’s just a matter of when…

…and while they don’t show it, I think the sound the crowd makes afterward tells the story. :)

MLB 08 The Show for PS3 is looking kinda spiffy. More videos here

I wonder if this guy would have more luck batting if he was standing up. ;)

“A lot of people are capable of playing Nintendo baseball. When you play fantasy baseball or on a computer, rarely do you take into account a missed umpire’s call or a tweaked hamstring. People only know part of it. There’s a reason why we do what we do.”

MLB.com 2007-08-23

Back a couple of years ago, while still playing MVP Baseball 2005 on the PlayStation 2, I constructed “Daeley’s Dodgers” and took the team to the World Series. We wound up winning that year.

Recently, I got a hold of MLB 07: The Show (after enjoying 06 last year) at a good price and have been enjoying playing it off and on. It occurred to me to construct an updated version of Daeley’s Dodgers, this time with just a bit of revisionist history. ;)

Daeley’s Dodgers 2007

• C Russell Martin
• 1B James Loney
• 2B Nomar Garciaparra
• SS Rafael Furcal
• 3B Adrian Beltre
• LF Andre Ethier
• CF Matt Kemp
• RF Vladimir Guerrero

Rotation:

• SP Jason Schmidt
• SP Brad Penny
• SP Derek Lowe
• SP Chad Billingsley
• SP Randy Wolf

Relievers:

• RP Hong-Chi Kuo
• RP Yhency Brazoban
• RP Scott Proctor
• RP Joe Beimel
• RP Jonathan Broxton
• RP Takashi Saito
• CP Eric Gagne

Bench:

• C Mike Lieberthal
• IF Olmedo Saenz
• IF Ramon Martinez
• OF Marlon Anderson
• OF Luis Gonzalez

And as far as the revisionist thing goes, here are the anachronisms:

1. Jeff Kent was not resigned by Ned Colletti, and Nomar agreed to move from 1B to 2B since James Loney was ready to start.
2. Adrian Beltre did not leave after the 2004 season, signing a deal with the Dodgers rather than the Mariners.
3. The Dodgers were able to sign Vladimir Guerrero in 2004 despite being in the middle of the ownership change.
4. Scott Proctor was not traded in 2003, and instead came up to the bigs in 2004.
5. Eric Gagne agreed to resign with the Dodgers for a one-year deal for 2007, thus moving Takashi Saito down to setup duty, at least to start the season.
6. Luis Gonzalez was brought in as a 4th/5th outfielder and pinch-hitter.
7. Juan Pierre was never signed, with Matt Kemp proving his worth well enough to take the starting CF job last season.
8. Yhency Brazoban stayed healthy to start the season.

So, nothing too awfully improbable — no Alex Rodriguez trades from Texas or anything like that. ;)

Assumptions, “pretend” and otherwise:

• There is no connection between the previous Daeley’s Dodgers and this edition — i.e. different “universe.” ;)
• Andy LaRoche is in AAA (I’m playing a Season rather than Franchise, so he’s technically on the Inactive list) to be able to play full time. If Beltre is hurt, traded, or otherwise disappears, Andy will be called up.
• Hong-Chi Kuo is acting as a long reliever, taking the role of Mark Hendrickson — however, Mark is still available on the Inactive list.
• Brett Tomko is no longer with the organization.

The 2007 season begins…

After cruising through Spring Training, the Dodgers headed out on the road for their first regular season games, beginning in Milwaukee. (MLB 07: The Show has the real schedule for 2007.) Just like in real life, the Dodgers took one of three from the Brewers, so are taking a 1-2 record to San Francisco for April 6th.

More to come, including more details on stats and whatnot, as the season progresses.