Winning the National League Pennant
Today, Jon Weisman over at Dodger Thoughts posed an interesting way of looking at the upcoming season in “2008 Goal: The National League Pennant”.
Not that I don’t want the Dodgers to win the World Series. But the American League looks so much stronger than the National League that I’m not going to fret too much about the Dodgers beating the AL’s best. I’m willing to be Cinderella at that point.
The argument is to not blow up a core group of players that might well put us in contention every year through 2013 (including 2008), all for the sake of a long-shot 2008 push with “who knows?” after that. As Jon says,
The Dodgers do need to improve to win the NL, but they don’t need to improve radically.
Looking back over the last few years, it’s easy to pick out certain winning franchises that could be used as models, everything from the seemingly moribund Marlins to the Yankees juggernaut. Most recently, we see the Red Sox winning a couple of times after a really long wait.
What’s the right answer? The fact is there is no one way to win, no magic incantations to be chanted during the off-season to reveal the right moves to make.
For informational purposes, let’s look at the results of the 13 World Series after the 1994 strike.
YEAR WINNER LOSER ----------------------------------------- 1995 Braves (NL) Indians (AL) 1996 Yankees (AL) Braves (NL) 1997 Marlins (NL) † Indians (AL) 1998 Yankees (AL) Padres (NL) 1999 Yankees (AL) Braves (NL) 2000 Yankees (AL) Mets (NL) † 2001 Dbacks (NL) Yankees (AL) 2002 Angels (AL) † Giants (NL) † 2003 Marlins (NL) † Yankees (AL) 2004 Red Sox (AL) † Cardinals (NL) 2005 White Sox (AL) Astros (NL) † 2006 Cardinals (NL) Tigers (AL) † 2007 Red Sox (AL) Rockies (NL) † † = Wild Card
What we see is:
- NL won five times, AL won eight.
- Wild Card teams have collectively made nine appearances (out of 26 possible), winning four. However, eight of those nine have been since 2000.
- Outpacing everybody, the Yankees made six appearances, winning four…but none since 2000.
Broken down by divisions:
DIVISION WINS/APPEARANCES -------------------------------- AL East 6 of 8 NL East 3 of 6 NL West 1 of 4 AL Central 1 of 4 NL Central 1 of 3 AL West 1 of 1
No surprises there.
Now, the Dodgers are not the Yankees nor the Red Sox when it comes to budget. However, there seems to be a “21st Century World Series” emerging, to look at 2001-2007:
- On the AL side, the Red Sox have won two of two appearances, and the Yankees have lost both of their two.
- Also for the AL, they have won four of the seven series so far this century.
- For the NL, the Cardinals are the only team to appear more than once, and they won one of two.
- And the NL have won three of the seven.
In other words, nobody’s dominating — not a league, nor a single team, except maybe the Red Sox.
Again, there isn’t a right answer to get to the crapshoot that is the World Series.
Assuming the goal is to win the National League Pennant, however, is there anything to learn from the National League Championship Series winners?
YEAR WINNER LOSER ---------------------------------- 1995 Braves Reds 1996 Braves Cardinals 1997 Marlins † Braves 1998 Padres Braves 1999 Braves Mets † 2000 Mets † Cardinals 2001 Diamondbacks Braves 2002 Giants † Cardinals 2003 Marlins † Cubs 2004 Cardinals Astros † 2005 Astros † Cardinals 2006 Cardinals Mets 2007 Rockies † Diamondbacks
Of course, the first thing that jumps out of you is how dominant the Braves were for a long time. You also see they haven’t been back to the NLCS since 2001.
The 21st Century NLCS, 2001-2007:
- Somehow, the Cardinals are always hanging around.
- Wild Card teams have won four of those seven.
- Might 2007 be a portent of the next decade of NL West dominance?
If that last item is the case, and signs point to yes, then the goal “Win the National League Pennant” becomes “Win the NL West.” Beyond that, it’s a crapshoot.
And of course, we knew that already.
So, my conclusions:
- The Dodgers don’t have the budget of the Red Sox or Yankees, so can’t spend their money willy-nilly.
- To win the NL Pennant, the Dodgers have to strive to win the NL West.
- To be able to win the NL Pennant over the next decade, we cannot blow gaping holes in the lineup in order to maybe win in 2008. We can maybe win in 2008 without the gaping holes.
- Wait however many years it takes for the Fox TV deal to expire, then start raking in the cash like the Yankees and Red Sox do. ;)