The Trolley Dodger

Now this is some better rumor mongering, via Ken Gurnick on MLB.com “Dodgers, Jones inch closer together”:

The Dodgers and free agent Andruw Jones inched closer to common ground on Wednesday, although general manager Ned Colletti said that any significant announcement before he returns to Los Angeles on Thursday night “is a real longshot.”…

Yet the negotiations have continued throughout the Winter Meetings, with indications that Jones is warming to the idea of a two- or three-year contract that would allow him to rehabilitate his stats in time for another bite at the free-agent apple while still in his prime….

…Another former Atlanta teammate, Dodgers shortstop Rafael Furcal, is said to have placed more than one recruiting phone call to Jones, understandable because they were the closest of friends when they played together.

Yes, please! This would also counter the Angels’ “Center Fielder With Weirdly Spelled First Name” move. ;)

Today, Jon Weisman over at Dodger Thoughts posed an interesting way of looking at the upcoming season in “2008 Goal: The National League Pennant”.

Not that I don’t want the Dodgers to win the World Series. But the American League looks so much stronger than the National League that I’m not going to fret too much about the Dodgers beating the AL’s best. I’m willing to be Cinderella at that point.

The argument is to not blow up a core group of players that might well put us in contention every year through 2013 (including 2008), all for the sake of a long-shot 2008 push with “who knows?” after that. As Jon says,

The Dodgers do need to improve to win the NL, but they don’t need to improve radically.

Looking back over the last few years, it’s easy to pick out certain winning franchises that could be used as models, everything from the seemingly moribund Marlins to the Yankees juggernaut. Most recently, we see the Red Sox winning a couple of times after a really long wait.

What’s the right answer? The fact is there is no one way to win, no magic incantations to be chanted during the off-season to reveal the right moves to make.

For informational purposes, let’s look at the results of the 13 World Series after the 1994 strike.

YEAR    WINNER            LOSER
-----------------------------------------
1995    Braves (NL)       Indians (AL)
1996    Yankees (AL)      Braves (NL)
1997    Marlins (NL) †    Indians (AL)
1998    Yankees (AL)      Padres (NL)
1999    Yankees (AL)      Braves (NL)
2000    Yankees (AL)      Mets (NL) †
2001    Dbacks (NL)       Yankees (AL)
2002    Angels (AL) †     Giants (NL) †
2003    Marlins (NL) †    Yankees (AL)
2004    Red Sox (AL) †    Cardinals (NL)
2005    White Sox (AL)    Astros (NL) †
2006    Cardinals (NL)    Tigers (AL) †
2007    Red Sox (AL)      Rockies (NL) †

† = Wild Card

What we see is:

• NL won five times, AL won eight.
• Wild Card teams have collectively made nine appearances (out of 26 possible), winning four. However, eight of those nine have been since 2000.
• Outpacing everybody, the Yankees made six appearances, winning four…but none since 2000.

Broken down by divisions:

DIVISION        WINS/APPEARANCES
--------------------------------
AL East        6 of 8
NL East        3 of 6
NL West        1 of 4
AL Central     1 of 4
NL Central     1 of 3
AL West        1 of 1

No surprises there.

Now, the Dodgers are not the Yankees nor the Red Sox when it comes to budget. However, there seems to be a “21st Century World Series” emerging, to look at 2001-2007:

• On the AL side, the Red Sox have won two of two appearances, and the Yankees have lost both of their two.
• Also for the AL, they have won four of the seven series so far this century.
• For the NL, the Cardinals are the only team to appear more than once, and they won one of two.
• And the NL have won three of the seven.

In other words, nobody’s dominating — not a league, nor a single team, except maybe the Red Sox.

Again, there isn’t a right answer to get to the crapshoot that is the World Series.

Assuming the goal is to win the National League Pennant, however, is there anything to learn from the National League Championship Series winners?

YEAR    WINNER          LOSER
----------------------------------
1995    Braves          Reds
1996    Braves          Cardinals
1997    Marlins †       Braves
1998    Padres          Braves
1999    Braves          Mets †
2000    Mets †          Cardinals
2001    Diamondbacks    Braves
2002    Giants †        Cardinals
2003    Marlins †       Cubs
2004    Cardinals       Astros †
2005    Astros †        Cardinals
2006    Cardinals       Mets
2007    Rockies †       Diamondbacks

Of course, the first thing that jumps out of you is how dominant the Braves were for a long time. You also see they haven’t been back to the NLCS since 2001.

The 21st Century NLCS, 2001-2007:

• Somehow, the Cardinals are always hanging around.
• Wild Card teams have won four of those seven.
• Might 2007 be a portent of the next decade of NL West dominance?

If that last item is the case, and signs point to yes, then the goal “Win the National League Pennant” becomes “Win the NL West.” Beyond that, it’s a crapshoot.

And of course, we knew that already.

So, my conclusions:

• The Dodgers don’t have the budget of the Red Sox or Yankees, so can’t spend their money willy-nilly.
• To win the NL Pennant, the Dodgers have to strive to win the NL West.
• To be able to win the NL Pennant over the next decade, we cannot blow gaping holes in the lineup in order to maybe win in 2008. We can maybe win in 2008 without the gaping holes.
• Wait however many years it takes for the Fox TV deal to expire, then start raking in the cash like the Yankees and Red Sox do. ;)

The NY Times has a brief story on Don Mattingly at the Winter Meetings, “Donnie Baseball Emerges as Donnie Dodger”. Within that,

Mattingly says he is here to learn as much about his new organization as possible. He is studying videotapes of the Dodgers and videotapes of National League pitchers. Mattingly compared the learning process to how he felt when he returned as a Yankees coach after being out of baseball for several years….

He doesn’t think it’ll be weird putting on another uniform. I have to say it will be weird seeing him in Dodger Blue.

UPDATE

Tony Jackson points out another Mattingly-related wrinkle:

One more indication that new Dodgers hitting coach Don Mattingly is the heir apparent to manager Joe Torre when Torre’s contract expires after the 2010 season: while Torre is missing these meetings for personal reasons, Mattingly is here, and when reporters went into Colletti’s suite for their daily briefing, he was there, too, along with player development director DeJon Watson and special assistants Vance Lovelace and Bill Mueller.

Coaches rarely attend the winter meetings. Managers, however, almost always attend and are part of their GMs’ inner circle, participating in meetings along with all the top front-office brass.

An ancillary tidbit in the news stories on Walter O’Malley’s Hall of Fame induction was the fact that his grandsons are the majority owners of the Visalia Oaks. They’re in the California League’s North Division, and are a Diamondbacks affiliate.

From “Walter O’Malley’s long road to the Hall of Fame” in the LA Times,

…even though Peter O’Malley sold the Dodgers a decade ago, his family remains involved in baseball. Tom Seidler and his cousin Kevin O’Malley — two grandsons of Walter O’Malley — are the majority owners of the Visalia Oaks, a minor league team. The other partners are family members.

Seidler, 39, was in attendance here when his grandfather’s election to the Hall of Fame was announced.

“He was a visionary for baseball and set a good example for all of us,” Seidler said. “I’m just excited. I’m extremely proud.

The Oaks have a couple of different logos, both of which are awesome. The first is this cool squirrel, named Chatter:

And then, this angry acorn:

However, according to Wikipedia,

The current team owner desires to change the team name and mascot to a more “marketable” one. Recently, fans have began submitting ideas and opinions on the change. The Visalia Times-Delta has reported that the new name and mascot will most likely reflect the local agricultural lifestyle.

What’s wrong with Oaks?!

Former Dodgers owner Walter O’Malley has been elected to the Hall of Fame, it was announced today. To hear some New Yorkers talk, Satan just got an invite to the Vatican bingo night.

Witness the comments attached to this NY Times article, “Exec Who Moved ‘Dem Bums’ Out of Brooklyn Is Hall of Famer”. One Harold Stabner opines:

O’Malley ripped the heart out of major league baseball when his money hungry heart moved west. New York WAS baseball with three major league teams. He should be left out of any baseball history published in the future.

As usual, New York is the center of the universe.

Some folks try to defend O’Malley, injecting a smidgen of reality into the discussion. Like Eric Silver, who writes,

Villain? Who was the villain? Fact check on Robert Moses and his gigantic ego who wouldn’t budge in his one-sided negotiations with the O’Malleys. Who in their right mind WOULDN’T have left Brooklyn then?

Aside from the 50-year-old angst surrounding the Dodgers’ departure, I have to echo the disgust at the continuing exclusion of Gil Hodges from the Hall of Fame.

Also, a 2008 Yankees-Dodgers World Series would be historically appropriate and absolutely awesome.